PV Industry Enters Critical Transformation: From Scale Expansion to Value Creation

JSJA, December 9, 2025

As 2025 draws to a close, the global photovoltaic industry stands at a pivotal juncture, transitioning from a phase of explosive growth to one focused on quality and profitability. China remains the industry's powerhouse with 90%+ global manufacturing capacity and 1,110GW cumulative installed capacity , but faces unprecedented challenges from overcapacity and margin pressure. The sector is undergoing a fundamental shift - from quantity competition to value creation - driven by technological innovation, policy guidance, and industry self-regulation.

Market Performance: Unprecedented Scale with Structural Shifts

• Global PV installations reached 600GW in the first three quarters of 2025, with full-year projections ranging from 655GW (SolarPower Europe) to 730GW (BloombergNEF)
• Total global installed capacity is expected to exceed 2,800GW by year-end , equivalent to the combined power generation capacity of the United States and EU

• China's cumulative installed capacity surpassed 1,110GW by July 2025 , becoming the nation's largest power source, exceeding coal power for the first time
• 2025 Q1-Q3 new installations reached 239.53GW , including 127.94GW distributed PV (53.41%) and 111.59GW utility-scale (46.59%)
• Distributed PV has become the primary growth engine: commercial-industrial distributed PV added 93.5GW (47.4% of total), growing 50% year-on-year
• Jiangsu, Xinjiang, and Inner Mongolia led with combined installations exceeding 60GW

Manufacturing Landscape: Painful Adjustment with Early Recovery Signs

• December 2025 production schedules show significant reductions:
  • Polysilicon: down 0.96% month-on-month
  • Wafers: down 15.95% month-on-month
  • Cells: down 12.61% month-on-month
  • Modules: down 13.58% month-on-month
• These reductions follow November's already steep cuts: polysilicon output fell 14.48% month-on-month , with southwest China producers particularly affected by dry-season power constraints

• Polysilicon prices have recovered to 53-55 yuan/kg , up 31.6% from early 2025
• Module prices have stabilized around 0.72 yuan/W , with some projects seeing slight increases
• The price recovery has begun to improve profitability: in Q3 2025, 14 of 21 main chain listed companies achieved sequential profit growth, with Daqo Energy and Shuangliang Energy successfully turning losses into profits

• Q3 financial reports show significant improvement: Longi Green Energy's loss narrowed by 47.52% year-on-year to 3.403 billion yuan 中国经济网
• Inverter manufacturers lead the recovery: Sungrow Power reported Q3 net profit of 11.88 billion yuan, up 56.34% year-on-year
• Industry-wide losses are expected to continue narrowing in Q4, with some analysts predicting an overall industry profit turnaround by Q2 2026

Technology Breakthroughs: New Frontiers Paving the Way Forward

• N-type cells have replaced P-type as mainstream with 90%+ market penetration
• TOPCon technology leads with 71.1% market share , offering high efficiency at relatively low transformation costs
• Large-size wafers (182mm/210mm) account for over 95% of production , while thickness has been reduced to 110μm for HJT cells, cutting material usage by 15-20%

• Most significant breakthrough: Xiexin GTC perovskite/tandem cell achieves 33.31% efficiency, certified by the National PV Quality Inspection Center
• Nanjing University's perovskite modules published in Science magazine achieve commercial-module efficiency of 22% with improved stability
• Industrialization accelerates: Jinggong Light Machinery begins mass delivery of perovskite production equipment , while CATL establishes a 0.7GW perovskite production line

• JA Solar launches "DesertBlue" series for arid regions: 650W output, 24% efficiency with nano anti-dust coating reducing transmittance degradation by 32%
• Longi's "Three-proof" modules receive industry's first "Component-level Fire Risk Resistance Certificate" from TÜV Rheinland , addressing safety concerns following recent incidents

Industry Challenges: Rough Waters on the Path to Recovery

• Despite production cuts, industry inventory levels remain high, particularly in the downstream module sector
• The supply-demand gap is expected to persist until mid-2026, with some analysts predicting the industry inflection point around May-June 2026

• US maintains 271.28% anti-dumping duties on Southeast Asian PV products
• EU establishes minimum import price of €0.18/W for Chinese modules
• Brazil increases tariffs from 9.6% to 25% with quota system
• These barriers have significantly impacted export strategies: China's PV exports declined 33.9% year-on-year in 2024

• PV utilization rate dropped to 93.4% in February 2024 , below the 95% red line
• In 2026, the industry's core constraint will shift from "production capacity" to "grid absorption"
• Energy storage integration becomes essential: solar-storage projects reached 8.4GW/22.3GWh in 2024 , creating new business models

Outlook: A New Era of Quality Development

• The "Anti-Involution" campaign accelerates: 17 polysilicon companies have agreed to form a consortium to stabilize prices, expected to complete by end-2025
• The China Photovoltaic Industry Association releases strict guidelines against below-cost selling, with 118 companies signing self-discipline commitments
• These efforts have already yielded results: Q3 financial reports show reduced losses across the industry chain

• National Energy Administration raises 2025 non-fossil energy target to 60% of installed capacity
• The "14th Five-Year Plan" photovoltaic development plan focuses on quality over quantity
• Local policies provide additional momentum: Jiangsu province establishes a "full electricity market + price difference guarantee" dual mechanism for new PV projects from January 2026

• Perovskite-silicon tandem technology emerges as a game-changer: laboratory efficiencies exceed 30%, with commercial products expected to reach 25-28% by 2026
• This efficiency leap could reduce the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) by 20-30%, making solar power even more competitive

• The industry is shifting from price competition to value creation: leading companies now focus on product differentiation, efficiency improvements, and reliability

  
  

Conclusion: Embracing the New Paradigm

The global photovoltaic industry is undergoing a fundamental transformation from "scale at all costs" to "quality and value creation" as 2025 concludes. While challenges remain, the industry is clearly on a path toward healthier development, driven by technological innovation, policy guidance, and market self-correction.

For industry participants, success in this new era will depend on three key factors: (1) investing in R&D to develop differentiated, high-efficiency products; (2) optimizing global supply chains to navigate trade barriers; and (3) embracing the transition from price wars to value-based competition.

As the world accelerates toward carbon neutrality, the photovoltaic industry—now more than ever—will be the cornerstone of the global energy transition, not just as the cheapest energy source but as an engine for technological innovation across the entire energy sector.